Scientists are developing a test which could one day be used to predict how a patient’s illness will progress, and even how well they will respond to treatment.

The international team, led by researchers at Imperial College London, has already tested their method (called VeloCD) to successfully predict patients’ outcomes for a range of health conditions, including the likely progression of infectious and chronic disease.

In a proof-of-concept study they were able confidently predict whether children with acute fever were likely to recover or deteriorate, and whether healthy adults were likely to go on to develop flu or COVID-19 after exposure to the viruses.

The method, based on state-of-the-art bioinformatics techniques, was even able to predict how well patients with inflammatory bowel disease would respond to a course of therapy, just from analysing blood samples after their first dose of treatment.

By measuring key markers in the blood – which reveal the levels of gene expression in response to an illness – it can be used to predict the likely trajectory of disease.

According to the Imperial team, the findings demonstrate how VeloCD can be used to make clinically meaningful predictions of future clinical states. Their findings, published in the journal Nature Communications, lay the vital groundwork for a future prognostic test.

They have filed a patent for the method and believe it has the potential to be developed into a commercially available test for use in hospitals.

Ultimately, the hope is that the approach could be used to rapidly triage patients, helping clinical staff to identify who will need further care and who could be safely sent home with treatment.

Professor Aubrey Cunnington, Head of the Department of Infectious Disease at Imperial College London, Honorary consultant in paediatric infectious diseases at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust, and senior author of the study, said: “We think this type of test could be hugely beneficial for patients and healthcare staff. By offering medics a test which can predict the course of illness it could help them to triage patients much faster, getting the right treatment to the right patient at the right time.”

How it works

When we become ill, combinations of genes are switched ‘on’ and ‘off’ in response. This produces RNA markers which can be detected in the blood. Previous research has shown that patterns of markers can be used to identify the cause of illness, such as whether a fever is caused by a bacterial or viral infection.

In this study, the team used a method called RNA velocity, originally developed for studying single cells. The Imperial-led team adapted and enhanced the approach to test whole blood samples to find out whether the markers could also indicate prognosis; whether a patient was likely to get better or worse, and how they would respond to treatment.

It enabled them to see not only which genes were switched on and off, but whether their activity was ramping up or winding down –without having to make repeated measurements over time. From this they could learn information about a person’s future clinical state and the course of their illness.

To take advantage of this complex data, they developed a computational method to predict whether the changes in the patterns of gene expression in an individual’s blood were becoming more like or less like those of other individuals with the outcomes of interest – for example, severe illness or mild, self-resolving illness.

Dr Claire Dunican, Research Associate and Bioinformatician in the Department of Infectious Disease at Imperial College London, who developed, adapted and tested the method, and first and co-corresponding author of the study, said: “Our approach uses cutting-edge methods to provide a glimpse into a patient’s future, based on how their body is responding to illness at that moment in time.

“The patterns of gene expression we see in the blood offer clues as to what is happening. By identifying key patterns, we can essentially predict the trajectory of illness – not just where someone is right now, but where they are going to be in next few hours or days. In practice, this could tell us whether they will get better or deteriorate, and how they might respond to treatment.”

Testing the concept

To validate the approach, the team looked at real world data from several large studies, including the EU-funded PERFORM study. This included blood samples from almost 400 children across nine European countries who were admitted to hospital with a fever.

Whole-blood RNA sequencing showed that more than 2300 markers produce reliable patterns for mild, moderate and severe illness. By focusing VeloCD on a subset of just 59 of these markers, the team could predict whether a child was likely to progress to mild, moderate or severe illness. Crucially, the approach flagged individuals most likely to deteriorate, who would require intensive care.

In another test of the approach, the team used VeloCD to predict whether people would develop flu or COVID-19 after viral exposure. For this, they used the wealth of data generated by the landmark human challenge programme at Imperial College London, in which healthy adults were exposed to influenza or SARS-CoV-2 under controlled conditions. Blood samples collected early in the study (Day 2) could be used to accurately predict whether a person would go on to become infected or not, even before infection could be confirmed via PCR test.

In further validations, the team showed the potential of VeloCD as a tool to highlight complications of HIV and tuberculosis, and response to treatment in inflammatory bowel disease, all based on the RNA markers in the blood.

Dr Myrsini Kaforou, Associate Professor in Bioinformatics in the Department of Infectious Disease at Imperial College London, and co-author of the study, said: “Clinical teams often have to make informed decisions based on limited evidence within a narrow window of time. A test based on this approach, which relies on state-of-the-art bioinformatics techniques to decode dynamic information within a patient’s blood, could be revolutionary.

“It could enable us to get ahead of disease and predict in a clinical setting whether a patient is heading towards recovery or deterioration, providing the foresight needed to deliver truly personalised and proactive medicine.”

Professor Mauricio Barahona, Chair in Biomathematics in the Department of Mathematics at Imperial College London, and co-author of the study, said: “This is one of those very rewarding instances of a true cross-disciplinary collaboration, where  the application to biomedical data of what was originally a set of quite involved mathematical ideas linking high-dimensional geometry and dynamics can hopefully help make sense of the complex signatures linked to disease progression in individuals.”

The researchers say further work is now needed to develop and validate predictive tests based on this approach. But if the work is successful, with a focused programme of development, a working clinical test could be available within as little as five years.

The team has made the VeloCD tool available on GitHub.

The work was carried out with a number of Global partners, including key collaborators at UCL, University of Cape Town, Queen Mary University of London, the PERFORM consortium, and the human challenge programme at Imperial College London.

The research was supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation programme, the UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) Medical Research Council (MRC) and Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC), and the UK Department for International Development (DFID), and others.

The work was also supported by the NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, a translational research partnership between Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust and Imperial College London.

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‘Predicting trajectories of illness using RNA velocity of whole blood’ by Claire Dunican, Clare Wilson, Dominic Habgood-Coote, et al. is published in Nature Communications. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-71685-5

We are now seeking to appoint a new Co-Director to provide strategic leadership for this flagship NIHR research centre. Working alongside the existing Co-Director, Professor Mark Thursz, the postholder will help guide the overall vision, direction and performance of the BRC, ensuring alignment with the strategic priorities of Imperial, ICHT and NIHR. An immediate focus of the Co-Directors will be to lead the development of the BRC’s renewal bid for the 2028–2033 funding cycle. Additionally, they must strengthen research platforms and partnerships, while also overseeing the management of financial, physical and human resources across a large and complex organisation.

Candidates will be senior clinical academics of international standing who have led large, multidisciplinary research programmes/centres with demonstrable translational impact. They will bring experience in NHS–university partnerships, stewardship of multimillion-pound portfolios and shared research infrastructure. A strong track record of engaging patients, communities, and the wider public to shape, deliver, and evaluate biomedical research is essential, alongside the leadership skills needed to motivate diverse teams and work effectively with internal and external stakeholders.

Further information

Candidates must be able to describe how they are at the top of their field internationally to meet NIHR standards and therefore be eligible for this role.
Enquiries can be made, in confidence, to Jamie Cumming-Wesley, email: jcumming-wesley@wittkieffer.com or Natalie Derry, email: nderry@wittkieffer.com at WittKieffer.
Completed applications should be submitted electronically to rsmith@wittkieffer.com . Deadline for submission is 6th May 2026

Six-month fixed term secondment- one day a week or equivalent- start date negotiable

You are invited to apply for an exciting opportunity to be seconded part-time to the Patient Experience Research Centre (PERC) for six months as one of two PERC Fellows.

These fellowships, funded by the NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre (BRC) are to upskill Imperial clinical and research staff on participatory research methods and public involvement in research. PERC is a core facility of the BRC providing Public Involvement, Engagement and Participation (PPIEP) advice and support for BRC researchers, as well as conducting research on patient experience to improve the quality of healthcare.

Already a clinician or researcher at Imperial, with an undergraduate and/or Masters degree (or equivalent experience) our fellowship will enable you to build on your existing skills in involving patients and the public in translational research. It will also provide you with an opportunity to gain practical experience in participatory research methods.

Building on the success of our previous Fellows and working with members of the PERC team, you will be provided with training opportunities in PPIEP and research methods. This fellowship will enable you to:

• Gain an understanding of the ways in which public involvement is embedded within the BRC
• Build on your knowledge of, and gain experience in, involving the public in research projects and engagement activities
• Shadow opportunities that build trust and engage with underrepresented and
  underserved communities in research
• Participate in activities that promote Equality, Diversity and Inclusion in PPIEP in research
• Build on your capacity and confidence in involving the public in research
• Be involved actively in qualitative research projects being undertaken by our team
• Under supervision, deliver training, networking and support on public involvement in research
• Collaborate with key stakeholders undertaking PPIEP in health research
• Gain experience in evaluating and sharing the impact of public involvement activities in BRC research
• Network with previous PERC Fellows

We will be holding a webinar on Thursday May 7th 2026 from 2.15 to 3pm to
provide more information about this opportunity- we will record the webinar for those unable to attend on the day.
We invite applications for the fellowship role by Monday June 8th 2026

Interviews for shortlisted applicants will be held in the week beginning July 6th 2026.

To register your interest in attending the webinar on Thursday May 7th 2026 from 2.15 to 3pm please email Dr Kathryn Jones, Clinical Research Manager by Friday May 1st 2026 to enable us to send you joining instructions: k.jones@imperial.ac.uk

To apply for this Fellowship please provide:

• a summary CV (maximum length 2 pages)
• a 500 word statement outlining your relevant skills and experience for the Fellowship, why you are interested in the role and what our team will learn from you
• a letter of support in principle from your line manager/ the person responsible for funding your post, this will vary by applicant but may be clinical service lead, professional lead, lead nurse or midwife

Please send this information to perc@imperial.ac.uk by 5pm on Monday June 8th 2026 copying in k.jones@imperial.ac.uk

More information about PERC can be found here:

Patient Experience Research Centre | Faculty of Medicine | Imperial College London

Blogs written by previous PERC Fellows can be found here:

Driving research that puts public and patient voices at the heart of everything we do.
“I feel extremely fortunate to be able to complete both clinical and research work”: Meet Dr Gemma Clunie

Over 100 researchers gathered at Imperial BRC’s annual event in March to share progress, highlight collaborations and begin to shape the future of the NIHR Imperial BRC.

The day kicked off with an engaging session about shaping the future of the NIHR Imperial BRC. Attendees then heard about progress made in our four key threads, with several theme leads leading or taking part in panel discussions.

The annual Imperial BRC patient and public involvement and engagement (PPIE) Prize was awarded to Dr Annemarie Lodder and we heard from Henry, a young person involved in the project.

Imperial BRC’s Patient Experience Research Centre (PERC) outlined future plans for patient and public involvement and engagement. We heard from Professor David Wingfield and a panel of primary care researchers on how they are embedding research in GP practices across north west London. Dr Gemma Clunie outlined the key achievements in capacity development, including the Pears Cumbria School of Medicine (PCSM) Research Hub. We also heard how to write an impact story and how to communicate work to a wider audience.

Imperial BRC Director Professor Mark Thursz said: “The event is a real highlight of our year, where we hear about all the excellent work going on across the Imperial BRC. I look forward to working with everyone to shape the BRC in the future.”

DO YOU HAVE EXPERIENCE WORKING IN MULTIPLE LONG-TERM CONDITIONS CARE? WE WOULD LOVE TO HEAR FROM YOU!

In a study led by Imperial College London and the NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, we are co-developing a set of primary care quality indicators that captures the top patient-centred priorities for the care of people living with MLTC. We have done this in partnership with patients and caregivers across Northwest London, with 5 community partners as co-investigators.

Over the past year we have:
1) Conducted a systematic review of existing MLTC quality indicators and qualitative themes on priorities with MLTC care

2) 21 In-depth interviews with patients and carers living and receiving care in NWL;
3) Developed a conceptual framework defining what “quality” means from a lived-experience perspective in the context of MLTC;
4) Nurtured collaborations and engagement with the North West London ICB Health Equity team to align these indicators with their health equity work and strategy in development for the next 5 years.

Who can participate?
– We would now greatly value contributions and insights from an expert panel of healthcare professionals including medical doctors, nurses, allied health professionals, commissioners or managers

– With at least 5 years’ experience in primary care, quality improvement, chronic condition management, or commissioning within Northwest London.

– Experience may be at a clinical, academic, clinical academic, or strategic/leadership level.

Participation will help refine and prioritise the proposed quality indicators into a smaller, operational set. Prioritisation will involve equal contributions from healthcare professionals, care commissioners, and patient representatives. Participation involves:

– Stage 1: Online Survey (via Qualitrics) taking no longer than 15-20 minutes to complete
– Stage 2: Hybrid workshop (face-face or online) with date to be defined when stage 1 acquires enough responses. Expected duration of max. 2 hours.

If you are interested in taking part please contact one of the research team members on the below emails or fill in the expression of interest form on the QR code below.
–  Sara Tavares: stavares@ic.ac.uk;

–  Laura Downey: LDowney@georgeinstitute.org.au,

– Tom Beaney: thomas.beaney@imperial.ac.uk